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上投摩根全球市场扫描
作者:上投摩根 文章来源:上投摩根 点击数: 更新时间:2007-7-4 15:04:36

  Asia Pacific   亚洲

  Asian markets bucked the global downward trend, with several individual markets reaching record highs. The MSCI Far East ex Japan Index ended the week 2.8% higher in USD and 2.5% in local currency terms. Hong Kong was the region's stellar performer, benefiting from the announcement that the Chinese government would allow mainland brokerages to invest outside the mainland for the first time. Investors expected a flood of money into Hong Kong shares, which are relatively cheap compared with stocks in China. China Mobile jumped 12% on the news, leading the Hang Seng up 4.7% to a new high.

  Another strong performance came from Taiwan's TWSI, which ended the week 3.2% higher. The island's chipmakers led the way after a jump in the spot price for the benchmark 512-megabit DRAM chip triggered investment on the expectation of a seasonal recovery in demand. Australia's All Ordinaries hit record highs midweek, but fell back on Friday to end 1.5% higher. The nation's biggest oil refiner, Caltex Australia, led the slump after releasing earnings forecasts that fell short of some analysts' expectations. China's shares completed their rebound from May's rout to reach new highs, before falling away sharply towards the end of the week on speculation the government will raise interest rates to cool stock markets. The Shanghai A-Share index ended the week down 0.9%.

  South Korea and Singapore also flirted with record highs before sobering on Friday. Korea's KOSPI eased 0.1% over the week, and the Singapore Straits Times was up 1.0%. Overseas investors are purchasing Singapore office buildings at a record pace as rents lifted after corporate tax cuts attracted global investment banks to expand in the Lion city. According to real estate consultant CB Richard Ellis, foreign private equity groups and funds have committed SGD2.4bn (USD1.6bn) to buy office towers year-to-date, 70% of all such transactions in Singapore, surpassing the SGD1.9bn of foreign acquisitions for all of 2006.

  亚洲逆流而上,多个市场均创出新高。摩根士丹利远东(日本除外)指数以美元计高收2.8%,以当地货币计则升2.5%。区内以港股表现最佳,中国政府破天荒宣布容许内地经纪行投资境外。投资者预计资金涌入股值较内地低廉的港股。中国移动应声急涨12%,带动恒生指数升4.7%创新高。台湾加权指数亦走势凌厉,高收3.2%。512兆位DRAM芯片现货价急升,触发投资者看好季节性需求回升而入市,台湾芯片制造商带动大市上扬。 澳洲所有普通股于上周中段迭创新高,周五却见回落,收市升1.5%。澳洲全国最大炼油商Caltex Australia所发表的盈利预测未达分析员预期,带动大市下跌。中国股市一度由5月份的低位反弹至新高,至上周尾段因为传闻政府将加息令股市降温而急跌。上海A股指数收市跌0.9%。 南韩及新加坡亦一度创新高,至上周五回落。南韩综合指数跌0.1%,新加坡海峡时报指数升1.0%。海外投资者买入新加坡商厦的步伐实属前所未有,当局降低企业税吸引环球投资银行扩充当地业务,刺激租金上升。据房地产顾问公司数据显示,外国私募基金集团及投资基金年初至今购置商厦的资金总额高达24亿坡元(16亿美元),当中70%交易在新加坡进行,比去年全年的19亿坡元还要多。

  Japan  日本

  TOPIX hit a seven-year high on Thursday as exporters benefited from fresh lows for the yen, and from the news that the country's export growth almost doubled in May. Fears of overvaluation sparked a retreat on Friday, and the index ended the week up 0.3%. Property developers were among the hardest hit, falling heavily on interest rate concerns. From the corporate side, some Japanese manufacturers recently announced large capex plans on the back of strong global demand. For example, Toshiba with a capacity increase for its NAND chip production and Kawasaki Heavy Industries for next generation Boeing 787 fuselages. Also trading house Mitsubishi Corp announced a joint project for iron ore production in West Australia with an investment of USD2.5bn. We expect more investment projects to be announced which will drive the market upwards.

  The media reported that the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) which is the worlds biggest pension fund with total assets of JPY111.5trn (USD900bn) plans to start investing in local small caps by year-end. The amount could be up to USD1bn and the investment may include JASDAQ and TSE Mothers stocks. This is clearly very positive news for small caps which have been suffering badly from redemptions at small cap funds during April and May. This can be seen as the government trying to indicate that the asset class is now long-term cheap, and when government funds have come in and bought Japanese stocks when they've been depressed the timing has tended to be contrarian and good.

  Nikkei reported the Ministry of Finance plans to sell more than 900 government owned properties as part of an effort to slim down the public sector. The auctions are expected from next year and should generate total cash of JPY1.64trn by FY2014. More than 60% of these properties are civil servant housing, and it will contribute to reduce the debt overhang in Japan. Most of these properties are located in central areas and the demand will be very strong from domestic and overseas real estate companies, as it is getting more and more difficult to get properties in those areas. It will also stimulate more development around those sites.

  上周四东京第一市场指数创七年新高,出口商因日圆屡创低位而受惠,而5月份日本出口亦录得近倍增长。投资者担心股值过高,触发上周五股市回落,结果上周指数收市只是微升0.3%。地产发展商因息口隐忧而首当其冲。 企业方面,近期部分日本制造商在环球需求强劲之下宣布资本开支计划。例如东芝(Toshiba)扩大芯片产能,川崎重工(Kawasaki Heavy Industries)则生产新一代波音787机身。另外,贸易公司三菱株式会社(Mitsubishi Corp)则宣布斥资25亿美元在西澳洲进行铁矿合营项目。预料企业界会公布更多投资项目,推动大市上扬。 媒体报导全球最大退休基金、总资产达111.5万亿日圆(9,000亿美元)的日本政府退休投资基金计划在今年底之前开始投资当地小型公司,金额有可能多达10亿美元,对象可包括JASDAQ及TSE Mothers股份。对于4、5月份曾面临大量赎回要求的小型公司基金而言,上述消息显然极之利好。政府的措施可以看作是设法证明目前小型公司股值低廉,而当政府资金在日股低迷时入市的策略往往是逆市而行,效果不俗。 有报导指财务省计划出售900多项政府产业以精简公营范畴。预计拍卖会由明年起展开,在2014财年之前获得的现金应可达到16,400亿日圆。这些产业当中超过60%都是公务员宿舍,有助降低日本的债务。这些产业大多数座落中心地区,供应日减,国内外房地产公司需求甚殷,亦可刺激附近一带的发展。

 

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