Asia Pacific 亚洲

　　Regional stock markets were mixed over the week, with many indices making modest progress. The MSCI Far East ex Japan Index ended the week 0.5% higher in USD and 0.4% in local currency terms. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.8% to a new record high on strong demand from China. Taiwan's TWSI rose 1.2%, as broker upgrades for the market attracted investors. Korea's KOSPI gained 1.1% on the back of some encouraging quarterly earnings announcements - LG Electronics, the mobile phone maker, reported its best profits for three years.

　　The MSCI China index gained 0.7% while China's A Shares rose 3.7%. China increased interest rates by 27 basis points on Friday, in response to strong growth data released on Thursday, with 11.9% growth in second-quarter GDP and inflation reaching 4.4% for the year to June, stoking fears of overheating in the Chinese economy. Thailand's SET fell 1.0%. As part of its drive to spur an economy blighted by feeble consumer confidence after last year's military coup, the Bank of Thailand lowered its policy interest rate by 0.25% to 3.25%, its fifth rate cut this year. June saw the country's inflation hold close to a 3-year low of 1.9%.

　　太平洋股市表现参差，不少指数都有温和进账。摩根士丹利远东（日本除外）指数以美元计升0.5%，以当地货币计则升0.4%。香港恒生指数升0.8%，在中国需求殷切推动下再创新高。台湾加权指数亦升1.2%，台股评级上调，亦吸引投资者垂青。部分公司季度业绩令人鼓舞，流动电话制造商LG Electronics录得三年来最丰厚溢利，刺激南韩综合指数升1.1%。

　　商品价格坚挺，矿务股又存在合并憧憬，刺激澳洲所有普通股指数升0.5%，但新加坡海峡时报指数却下跌0.1%。印度孟买证交所指数创新高，上周升1.5%。财政部长Chidambaram表示，基于商品价格（特别是原油价格）上涨，印度会保持「相当紧绌」的货币政策以压抑通胀。印度于6月份第四周的通胀率为4.3%，较1月份的两年高位回落多达三分一。印度将于2009年5月举行全国大选，现任国大党设法将通胀率推低至4%。通胀不断攀升导致执政党今年失去两个邦的权力，在最大的北方邦更是进一步落后。

　　摩根士丹利中国指数升0.7%，中国A股升3.7%。中国于上周五加息0.27厘，原因是上周四公布增长数据强劲，第二季国内生产总值增长达11.9%，年初至6月份通胀高达4.4%，引发中国经济过热隐忧。泰国证交所指数跌1.0%。泰国央行减息四分一厘至3.25%，是今年第五度减息，旨在刺激去年军事政变后的疲惫消费信心。6月份泰国通胀逼近1.9%的三年低位。 

　　 Japan 日本

　　Both TOPIX and Nikkei 225 were 0.4% lower in a week when a major earthquake caused substantial disruption to parts of the North West of the country. Power companies were lower as Tokyo Electric Power (-12.4% WoW) was forced to shut down a nuclear power plant damaged by the quake. Honda (-0.9%) was also impacted, as disruption to one of its suppliers forced it to suspend domestic car production. The earthquake also hobbled casualty insurance names such as Millea Holdings (-1.3%). In contrast, steelmakers with strong earnings expectations did well last week. JFE Holdings and Nippon Steel each added 12.0% and 11.2%, respectively. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries rose 7.0%, and Nintendo climbed 4.4%, hitting a new lifetime high on strong sales of its Wii game consoles.

　　Amongst economic data, nationwide department store sales rose 5.3% YoY in June, the highest growth since June 1998. However, METI's all-sector activity index fell 0.3% MoM in May after a 1.2% rise in April. With a week left before 29 July when voters will elect 122 members of the Upper House, the backlash against the ruling LDP party has been strengthening. Opinion polls conducted by the Asahi and Nikkei newspapers showed that support for the LDP has continued to fall, while support for the opposition DPJ party is rising.

　　日本发生严重地震，西北地区大受干扰，东京第一市场指数和日经225指数0.4%。电力股下挫，Tokyo Electric Power (-12.4%)核电厂因地震受损，被迫停产。本田Honda (-0.9%) 因一名供货商生产中断而须暂停国内汽车生产。地震亦导致Millea Holdings (-1.3%)等财产保险公司下跌。

　　相反，业绩预期强劲的钢铁制造商则表现不俗。JFE Holdings和Nippon Steel分别升12.0%及11.2%。三菱重工（Mitsubishi Heavy Industries）升7.0%，任天堂（Nintendo）因Wii游戏机销售货如轮转而创新高。经济数据当中，6月份全国百货商店销售额较去年同期上升5.3%，乃1998年6月以来最高增长。不过，经济产业省所有活动指数于4月份上升1.2%后，至5月份却下跌0.3%。现在距离7月29日上议院选举不足一星期，执政自民党形势更为不利。报章民意调查显示，自民党支持度继续下跌，反对党民主党支持度却不断提高。

　　United States 美国

　　In a volatile week the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both hit record highs on Thursday, before ultimately disappointing, with US-focused risk aversion the key driver. The Dow Jones ended the week 0.4% lower, while the NASDAQ fell 0.7% and the S&P 500 declined 1.2%, slightly underperforming the MSCI World index, which fell 1.1%. Heightened worries about the subprime market fallout to the broader economy, and news that the two Bear Sterns hedge funds with subprime mortgage exposure were almost worthless, weighed on stocks. A flight to quality, as investors switched from equities into safe havens such as government bonds, led the major equity indices lower.

　　By market cap, one third of the S&P 500 has reported second-quarter earnings. 60% of those have exceeded expectations, led by industrials, technology and financials. Year-on-year growth is so far 6.5%. However, economic weakness is starting to show in the consumer discretionary sector, down 12.8%. Disappointing second quarter earnings releases from Microsoft and Google on Friday depressed sentiment, while Caterpillar also fell after announcing a 21% fall in net profit, compared to 2Q06 and despite boosting its sales guidance. Credit worries caused financial stocks to underperform throughout the week, while healthcare and consumer stocks also performed poorly. Technology stocks had a mixed week, with Intel and Yahoo falling after releasing disappointing results and guidance, whilst IBM exceeded estimates.

　　JPMorgan and Citigroup announced 21% and 18% increases in second-quarter earnings respectively. However, along with several other US investment banks, both companies increased their provision for future bad loans. The dour financials sentiment weighed on the spin-off of derivatives brokerage MF Global from Man Group hedge fund. The company listed at USD30 per share, below its expected price range. With the focus on the US housing market, homes sales data due out on Wednesday and Thursday have scope to impact rates and risk appetite. Friday's advance 2Q US GDP release is also worth watching.

　　上周美股表现反复，道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数于上周四齐创新高，但之后却因美国引发避险心态加剧而回落。道琼斯指数上周低收0.4%，纳斯达克指数跌0.7%，标准普尔500指数则跌1.2%，表现略逊下跌1.1%的摩根士丹利环球指数。市场更加关注次级按揭市场殃及整体经济，加上贝尔斯登（Bear Sterns）两项持有次级按揭投资的对冲基金几乎变得一文不值，都令股市饱受压力。投资者将资金从股票转投政府债券等稳健资产，带动主要股市指数下挫。

　　按市值计算，大约三分一的标准普尔500指数成分股已经公布第二季业绩。当中有60%超越预期，以工业股、科技股和金融股领先。迄今较去年同期增长6.5%。不过，经济弱势已开始在非必需消费品范畴上浮现，跌12.8%。Microsoft及Google于上周五公布的第二季业绩未如理想令气氛受压，Caterpillar宣布第二季纯利较去年同期下降21%后股价亦下挫，即使调高销售指引亦未能提供支持。

　　信贷隐忧导致上周金融股跑输大市，健康护理和消费股亦表现不济。科技股表现参差，英特尔（Intel）和雅虎（Yahoo）公布业绩和指引欠佳，拖累股价下跌，IBM则超出预期。摩根大通（JPMorgan）和花旗集团（Citigroup）宣布第二季盈利分别增加21%及18%。不过，两者都和另外多家美国投资银行一样提高未来不良贷款拨备。金融股气氛低迷，亦对Man Group对冲基金将衍生工具经纪行MF Global分拆上市构成压力。MF Global上市价订为每股30美元，低于预计订价范围。本周三和周四公布的美国房屋销售数据有可能对利率和冒险意欲构成冲击。本周五提前公布的美国第二季国内生产总值同样值得留意。

　　Europe 欧洲

　　European stock markets ended the week lower, hit by growing concerns over the crisis in the US sub-prime mortgage sector. With some disappointing quarterly earnings reports also hitting confidence, the MSCI Europe Index recorded a 1.8% fall over the week. Among the major markets, the German DAX and French CAC 40 with their more cyclical bias performed particularly badly, falling 2.7% and 2.6% respectively. The more defensive UK FTSE 100 (-2.0%) and Swiss SPI (-1.5%) suffered slightly smaller falls. Ongoing uncertainty over the impact of the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage sector on European lenders was a major theme over the week.

　　Some disappointing quarterly results from the US technology sector added to the negative mood, as did a poor earnings report from Ericsson, the Swedish mobile phone maker. However, German software group, SAP, rose sharply after surprising investors with strong second-quarter software licence sales. Nevertheless, there were some below par earnings from European stocks too, including weaker-than-expected results from Swedish steelmaker, SSAB. Merger news provided some continued support as the board of Altadis, a Franco-Spanish cigarette company, accepted a third takeover offer from Britain's Imperial Tobacco worth EUR 16.2 billion.

　　UK supermarket chain, J Sainsbury, received a preliminary approach from a property investment-fund that is owned by the government of Qatar. There were concerns over the sustainability of European economic growth as the euro hit a new record high against the US dollar and the pound rose to its highest level since 1981. Interest rates are another key risk to European growth with both the European Central Bank and Bank of England expected to raise rates further in the coming months.

　　美国次级按揭范畴危机隐忧加剧，拖累上周欧洲股市低收。部分企业季度业绩欠佳亦打击投资信心，摩根士丹利欧洲指数上周跌1.8%。各主要市场当中，偏重周期股的德国DAX指数和法国CAC 40指数尤其表现失利，分别跌2.7%和2.6%。防守性较强的英国富时100指数 (-2.0%) 和瑞士SPI指数 (-1.5%) 的跌幅则较为轻微。美国次级按揭范畴崩盘可能殃及欧洲贷款机构乃上周一大主题。

　　美国若干科技公司季度业绩未如理想令气氛更加低迷，瑞典流动电话制造商爱立信（Ericsson）业绩欠佳亦然。不过，德国软件集团SAP第二季软件特许权销售强劲令投资者喜出望外，刺激股价急升。欧洲部分公司业绩低于一般水平，其中瑞典钢铁制造商SSAB的盈利就逊于预期。

　　合并消息继续提供若干承接，法国西班牙合资烟草公司Altadis董事会接纳英国Imperial Tobacco出价162亿欧元的第三次收购。英国连锁超级市场J Sainsbury获卡塔尔政府所拥有的地产投资基金提出初步洽购。欧元兑美元创新高，英镑亦上升至1981年以来的最高水平，市场关注欧洲经济增长能否持久。利率亦是欧洲增长的另一重要风险，欧洲央行及英伦银行都预计未来数月会进一步加息。

　　 Global Emerging Markets 环球新兴市场

　　Overall, emerging equity markets performed well, supported by rising currencies and high commodity prices, although some markets reacted more than others to the ongoing US subprime lending issue, resulting in a large disparity between stock market performances. Emerging Europe returned positive stock market growth, with and the MSCI EM EMEA increasing by 0.5% over the week. In contrast, the MSCI EM Latin America index fell 0.7%.

　　Emerging Europe's outperformer was Turkey's ISE National 100, which increased 1.6% over the week. Equities were boosted by expectations of a market-friendly result in the weekend's general election (which they got). Other emerging Europe markets that ended the week on a positive note were Russia's RTS index and Hungary's BUX, which both increased by 0.4%. In contrast, the region's worst performer was Poland's WIG, which fell 1.1%. The minutes of Poland's June MPC meeting confirmed that monetary tightening is likely to continue at a measured pace.

　　In Latin America, Brazil's BOVESPA ended fell 0.4%, despite reaching a new record high during the week. Argentina's MERVAL also fell 0.5%, while the region's underperformer was Mexico's BOLSA, which ended the week 1.4% lower.

　　受到汇率上升和商品价格高企支持，整体新兴股市表现不俗，但部分市场对美国次级按揭贷款问题的反应却比其它市场强烈，以致不同市场之间表现明显分化。新兴欧洲股市表现向好，上周摩根士丹利新兴欧洲、中东及非洲指数升0.5%。相反，摩根士丹利新兴拉丁美洲指数则跌0.7%。新兴欧洲股市以土耳其股市表现最佳，上周升1.6%。预计大选结果利好，刺激股市上扬。